Methodology:
where every number comes from.
Every forecast on NZD Forecast comes from a named NZ bank's published note, with its date and a link. Every exchange rate is a European Central Bank reference rate converted to NZD, dated (latest: 11 Nov 2026). We publish no forecast of our own.
Where do the exchange rates come from?
We use the European Central Bank's euro foreign exchange reference rates, which the ECB publishes once each working day. We convert them to NZD crosses (for example NZD/AUD = EUR/AUD ÷ EUR/NZD) using the Frankfurter API, and show the date of the rate on every page.
- They are mid-market reference rates: the midpoint between buying and selling prices at one moment in the day.
- They are not live, and they are not the rate a bank or transfer service will give you. Providers add a margin.
- The 52-week range and "position in range" use the daily ECB rates for the past 12 months.
Where do the bank forecasts come from?
From each bank's own published economics notes and forecast tables. We record the figure exactly as published, the date the bank published it, and a link to the document. Where a bank's note sits behind its research page (ASB and BNZ), the link goes to that page.
- ANZ: ANZ NZ Latest forecasts (spreadsheet), 18 September 2026.
- Westpac: Westpac NZ Weekly Commentary, 19 October 2026 (Economic and financial forecasts table).
- ASB: ASB Economic Forecast Update, October 2026 (FX forecasts by CBA's FX strategists, last updated August 2026).
- BNZ: BNZ Markets Outlook, 9 November 2026 (Quarterly Forecasts table).
- Kiwibank: being added.
The figures are end-of-period forecasts: "December 2026" means the bank's expected level at the end of December 2026.
Do we change or derive any figures?
- Inverted pairs. For AUD/NZD we show 1 ÷ the bank's NZD/AUD forecast, labelled as our arithmetic on the bank's figure.
- Rounding. ANZ publishes some crosses to four decimal places; we round them to two.
- Calculator. The forecast calculator multiplies your amount by each bank's published figure. It is not a quote.
- No synthetic forecasts. Where no NZ bank forecasts a pair (for example NZD/INR), we say so and don't build one.
When do we remove a forecast?
When a bank publishes a newer note, we replace its figures. Any forecast more than three months old is re-dated from a newer note or removed.
Where do the RBNZ figures come from?
The Official Cash Rate and decision dates are taken from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and from bank research that reports them, and each is attributed where it appears. The RBNZ's own calendar is at rbnz.govt.nz.
Who writes these pages is on the authors page, and the rules we follow are on About NZD Forecast.